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Golfers to Compete in a LIV Event on Kalshi
If Tyrrell Hatton competes in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, LIV Golf, The Wall Street Journal, AP, Golf Channel, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
12%
Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
25% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12¢ (now) | 0.7¢ | $3.08 | 12.7% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryson DeChambeau to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)? · Bryson DeChambeau | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 14,567 | Apr 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Jon Rahm to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)? · Jon Rahm | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 7,700 | Apr 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Dustin Johnson to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)? · Dustin Johnson | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 5,773 | Apr 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Joaquin Niemann to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)? · Joaquin Niemann | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 5,415 | Apr 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Cameron Smith to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)? · Cameron Smith | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 5,127 | Apr 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Tyrrell Hatton to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)? · Tyrrell Hatton | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 5,066 | Apr 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Anthony Kim to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)? · Anthony Kim | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 5,054 | Apr 08, 14:00 UTC |
| David Puig to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)? · David Puig | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 4,763 | Apr 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Phil Mickelson to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)? · Phil Mickelson | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 3,483 | Apr 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Dean Burmester to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)? · Dean Burmester | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 3,458 | Apr 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Sergio Garcia to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)? · Sergio Garcia | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,614 | Apr 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Elvis Smylie to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)? · Elvis Smylie | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 2,345 | Apr 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Byeong Hun An to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)? · Byeong Hun An | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 1,566 | Apr 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Abraham Ancer to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)? · Abraham Ancer | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,153 | Apr 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Thomas Detry to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)? · Thomas Detry | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 1,027 | Apr 08, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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