Markets › Kalshi › Science and Technology
Year-end top LLM on Kalshi
If xAI has the top-ranked LLM on Nov 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control).
Market says (typical open contract)
1%
Median YES price across 24 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best AI on Dec 31, 2026? · Claude | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 3,609,984 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Best AI on Dec 31, 2026? · ChatGPT | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 3,319,649 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Best AI on Dec 31, 2026? · Gemini | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 3,302,185 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Best AI on Dec 31, 2026? · Grok | 1¢ | 1% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,380,885 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Best AI on Dec 31, 2026? · Muse | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 2,087,990 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Best AI on Dec 31, 2026? · Qwen | 1¢ | 1% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,280,785 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Best AI on Dec 31, 2026? · Ernie | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 1,105,004 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Best AI on Dec 31, 2026? · Kimi | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 852,419 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Best AI at end of November 2026? · ChatGPT | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 108,660 | Nov 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Best AI at end of November 2026? · Claude | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 68,683 | Nov 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Best AI at end of November 2026? · Gemini | 74¢ | 74% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 67,303 | Nov 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Best AI at end of November 2026? · Muse | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 40,077 | Nov 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Best AI at end of November 2026? · Kimi | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 30,214 | Nov 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Best AI at end of November 2026? · Grok | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 17,511 | Nov 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Best AI this week · Claude | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 16,656 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Best AI this week · Gemini | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 14,771 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Best AI at end of November 2026? · Qwen | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 12,326 | Nov 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Best AI this week · ChatGPT | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 11,466 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Best AI this week · Grok | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,749 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Best AI this week · MUSE | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,473 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Best AI this week · Qwen | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,008 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Best AI this week · Kimi | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,002 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Best AI this week · Amazon Nova | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 7 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Best AI this week · Dola | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.