What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 50¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.73.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 52% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 50%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Financials

Eli Lilly Credit Card Spend on Kalshi

If the Carbon Arc Eli Lilly Credit Card Spend (November 2026) for November 2026 is above 96.5 , then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Carbon Arc.

Market says (typical open contract)

50%

Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

99% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
51¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.72	52.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Will Eli Lilly Credit Card Spend for November 2026 be above 96.5 ? · Above 96.5	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	Dec 05, 04:59 UTC
Will Eli Lilly Credit Card Spend for November 2026 be above 87 ? · Above 87	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	Dec 05, 04:59 UTC
Will Eli Lilly Credit Card Spend for November 2026 be above 135.5 ? · Above 135.5	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	Dec 05, 04:59 UTC
Will Eli Lilly Credit Card Spend for November 2026 be above 122 ? · Above 122	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	Dec 05, 04:59 UTC
Will Eli Lilly Credit Card Spend for November 2026 be above 116 ? · Above 116	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	Dec 05, 04:59 UTC
Will Eli Lilly Credit Card Spend for November 2026 be above 111 ? · Above 111	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	Dec 05, 04:59 UTC
Will Eli Lilly Credit Card Spend for November 2026 be above 106 ? · Above 106	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	Dec 05, 04:59 UTC
Will Eli Lilly Credit Card Spend for November 2026 be above 101.5 ? · Above 101.5	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	Dec 05, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.