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Who will win the 2028 London mayoral election? on Kalshi
If Dawn Butler wins the 2028 London mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the official electoral commission, constitutional court, or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
9% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sadiq Khan win the 2028 London mayoral election? · Sadiq Khan | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 4,860 | May 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Laila Cunningham win the 2028 London mayoral election? · Laila Cunningham | 14¢ | 14% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 3,231 | May 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Zack Polanski win the 2028 London mayoral election? · Zack Polanski | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 2,205 | May 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will David Lammy win the 2028 London mayoral election? · David Lammy | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,615 | May 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Mete Coban win the 2028 London mayoral election? · Mete Coban | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,527 | May 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Georgia Gould win the 2028 London mayoral election? · Georgia Gould | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,230 | May 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Rosena Allin-Khan win the 2028 London mayoral election? · Rosena Allin-Khan | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,143 | May 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will James Cleverly win the 2028 London mayoral election? · James Cleverly | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,117 | May 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Dawn Butler win the 2028 London mayoral election? · Dawn Butler | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 0 | May 01, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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