What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 28¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.52.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 29% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 28%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Financials

Lowes KPI on Kalshi

If Lowe's Companies Inc. reports Above 191000000 customer transactions in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fiscal.ai.

Market says (typical open contract)

28%

Median YES price across 25 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

56% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
28¢ (now)	1.4¢	$2.52	29.4%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 179 million customer transactions in Q3 2026? · Above 179 million	96¢	96%	0.3¢	—	9%	5,548	Mar 18, 05:00 UTC
Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 178 million customer transactions in Q3 2026? · Above 178 million	96¢	96%	0.3¢	—	8%	4,766	Mar 18, 05:00 UTC
Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 180 million customer transactions in Q3 2026? · Above 180 million	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	12%	4,005	Mar 18, 05:00 UTC
Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 0% comparable sales growth in Q3 2026? · Above 0%	59¢	59%	1.7¢	—	82%	3,104	Mar 18, 05:00 UTC
Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 181 million customer transactions in Q3 2026? · Above 181 million	79¢	79%	1.2¢	—	42%	3,038	Mar 18, 05:00 UTC
Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 182 million customer transactions in Q3 2026? · Above 182 million	60¢	60%	1.7¢	—	79%	2,815	Mar 18, 05:00 UTC
Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 183 million customer transactions in Q3 2026? · Above 183 million	40¢	40%	1.7¢	—	81%	467	Mar 18, 05:00 UTC
Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above -1.5% comparable sales growth in Q3 2026? · Above -1.5%	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	3%	456	Mar 18, 05:00 UTC
Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 1% comparable sales growth in Q3 2026? · Above 1%	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	24%	450	Mar 18, 05:00 UTC
Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 187 million customer transactions in Q3 2026? · Above 187 million	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	403	Mar 18, 05:00 UTC
Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 185 million customer transactions in Q3 2026? · Above 185 million	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	23%	402	Mar 18, 05:00 UTC
Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 188 million customer transactions in Q3 2026? · Above 188 million	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	401	Mar 18, 05:00 UTC
Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 186 million customer transactions in Q3 2026? · Above 186 million	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	17%	300	Mar 18, 05:00 UTC
Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 2% comparable sales growth in Q3 2026? · Above 2%	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	286	Mar 18, 05:00 UTC
Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 184 million customer transactions in Q3 2026? · Above 184 million	28¢	28%	1.4¢	—	56%	214	Mar 18, 05:00 UTC
Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above -2% comparable sales growth in Q3 2026? · Above -2%	97¢	97%	0.2¢	—	7%	196	Mar 18, 05:00 UTC
Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above -1% comparable sales growth in Q3 2026? · Above -1%	91¢	91%	0.6¢	—	18%	161	Mar 18, 05:00 UTC
Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 1.5% comparable sales growth in Q3 2026? · Above 1.5%	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	150	Mar 18, 05:00 UTC
Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 191 million customer transactions in Q3 2026? · Above 191 million	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	83	Mar 18, 05:00 UTC
Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 3% comparable sales growth in Q3 2026? · Above 3%	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	76	Mar 18, 05:00 UTC
Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 189 million customer transactions in Q3 2026? · Above 189 million	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	46	Mar 18, 05:00 UTC
Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 190 million customer transactions in Q3 2026? · Above 190 million	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	2	Mar 18, 05:00 UTC
Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above -0.5% comparable sales growth in Q3 2026? · Above -0.5%	82¢	82%	1.0¢	—	36%	0	Mar 18, 05:00 UTC
Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 2.5% comparable sales growth in Q3 2026? · Above 2.5%	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Mar 18, 05:00 UTC
Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 0.5% comparable sales growth in Q3 2026? · Above 0.5%	30¢	30%	1.5¢	—	60%	0	Mar 18, 05:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.