Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Who will win the 2nd-most seats in the Assembly of Madrid? on Kalshi
If Vox finishes in 2nd place in the next Madrid regional election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Junta Electoral Provincial de Madrid.
Market says (typical open contract)
26%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
53% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27¢ (now) | 1.4¢ | $2.56 | 28.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Vox finish 2nd in the next Madrid regional election? · Vox | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | May 22, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party finish 2nd in the next Madrid regional election? · PSOE | 69¢ | 69% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 0 | May 22, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Más Madrid finish 2nd in the next Madrid regional election? · Más Madrid | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 0 | May 22, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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