What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 41¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.06.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 43% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 41%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

Manager Out Date on Kalshi

If Thomas Tuchel ceases to be the manager of England National Football Team before Jun 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ESPN, Sky Sports, The Athletic.

Market says (typical open contract)

41%

Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

82% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
41¢ (now)	1.7¢	$2.07	42.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Thomas Tuchel be out before Jan 1, 2027? · Out before Jan 1, 2027	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	4,401	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Thomas Tuchel be out before Jun 1, 2028? · Out before Jun 1, 2028	41¢	41%	1.7¢	—	82%	4,306	Jun 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Thomas Tuchel be out before Jan 1, 2028? · Out before Jan 1, 2028	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	15%	2,718	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Thomas Tuchel be out before Jul 10, 2028? · Out before Jul 10, 2028	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	1,532	Jul 10, 03:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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