Markets › Kalshi › Economics
U.S. manufacturing construction spending on Kalshi
If Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 is above $130 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation, Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.
Market says (typical open contract)
36%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
72% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 36¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.24 | 37.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $150 billion? · Above $150 billion | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,098 | Feb 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $180 billion? · Above $180 billion | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 864 | Feb 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $190 billion? · Above $190 billion | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 655 | Feb 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $160 billion? · Above $160 billion | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 600 | Feb 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $170 billion? · Above $170 billion | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 450 | Feb 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $140 billion? · Above $140 billion | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 437 | Feb 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $220 billion? · Above $220 billion | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 10 | Feb 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $210 billion? · Above $210 billion | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 5 | Feb 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $200 billion? · Above $200 billion | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 5 | Feb 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $130 billion? · Above $130 billion | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Feb 01, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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