Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Maribor mayoral election winner on Kalshi
If Vincenc Gajser wins the 2026 Maribor mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: State Election Commission of Slovenia.
Market says (typical open contract)
3%
Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
7% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Vincenc Gajser win the 2026 Maribor mayoral election? · Vincenc Gajser | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Matej Vodopivec win the 2026 Maribor mayoral election? · Matej Vodopivec | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Matevž Frangež win the 2026 Maribor mayoral election? · Matevž Frangež | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 0 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Katja Koren win the 2026 Maribor mayoral election? · Katja Koren | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Igor Jurišič win the 2026 Maribor mayoral election? · Igor Jurišič | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bor Greiner win the 2026 Maribor mayoral election? · Bor Greiner | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Andrej Matvoz win the 2026 Maribor mayoral election? · Andrej Matvoz | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Aleš Ernecl win the 2026 Maribor mayoral election? · Aleš Ernecl | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Andrej Bauman win the 2026 Maribor mayoral election? · Andrej Bauman | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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