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Men's College Basketball Tournament Champion on Kalshi
If LSU is the 2026-27 Division 1 Men's College Basketball National Champion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 73 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Duke win the College Basketball National Championship? · Duke | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 848,886 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will UConn win the College Basketball National Championship? · UConn | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 643,795 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will North Carolina win the College Basketball National Championship? · North Carolina | 1¢ | 1% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 626,972 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Michigan win the College Basketball National Championship? · Michigan | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 611,020 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Arkansas win the College Basketball National Championship? · Arkansas | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 599,366 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Texas Tech win the College Basketball National Championship? · Texas Tech | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 529,494 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will St. John's win the College Basketball National Championship? · St. John's | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 524,392 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Baylor win the College Basketball National Championship? · Baylor | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 519,616 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Indiana win the College Basketball National Championship? · Indiana | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 518,265 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Florida win the College Basketball National Championship? · Florida | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 503,268 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Kansas win the College Basketball National Championship? · Kansas | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 479,511 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Illinois win the College Basketball National Championship? · Illinois | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 475,827 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Florida St. win the College Basketball National Championship? · Florida St. | 1¢ | 1% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 474,656 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Michigan St. win the College Basketball National Championship? · Michigan St. | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 450,950 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will UCLA win the College Basketball National Championship? · UCLA | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 404,213 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Nebraska win the College Basketball National Championship? · Nebraska | 1¢ | 1% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 374,585 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Arizona win the College Basketball National Championship? · Arizona | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 371,954 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Miami (FL) win the College Basketball National Championship? · Miami (FL) | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 366,974 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will NC St. win the College Basketball National Championship? · NC St. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 342,062 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Gonzaga win the College Basketball National Championship? · Gonzaga | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 340,598 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will LSU win the College Basketball National Championship? · LSU | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 333,042 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Vanderbilt win the College Basketball National Championship? · Vanderbilt | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 321,106 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Virginia win the College Basketball National Championship? · Virginia | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 317,441 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Missouri win the College Basketball National Championship? · Missouri | 1¢ | 1% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 312,301 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Kentucky win the College Basketball National Championship? · Kentucky | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 311,496 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Purdue win the College Basketball National Championship? · Purdue | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 302,947 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Texas win the College Basketball National Championship? · Texas | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 290,039 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Iowa St. win the College Basketball National Championship? · Iowa St. | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 288,543 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Alabama win the College Basketball National Championship? · Alabama | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 283,575 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Syracuse win the College Basketball National Championship? · Syracuse | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 281,980 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Wisconsin win the College Basketball National Championship? · Wisconsin | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 279,682 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Louisville win the College Basketball National Championship? · Louisville | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 277,174 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will USC win the College Basketball National Championship? · USC | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 267,685 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will San Diego St. win the College Basketball National Championship? · San Diego St. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 256,894 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Texas A&M win the College Basketball National Championship? · Texas A&M | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 253,740 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will BYU win the College Basketball National Championship? · BYU | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 243,280 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Houston win the College Basketball National Championship? · Houston | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 241,168 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Iowa win the College Basketball National Championship? · Iowa | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 236,726 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Oklahoma win the College Basketball National Championship? · Oklahoma | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 229,742 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Auburn win the College Basketball National Championship? · Auburn | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 228,211 | Apr 27, 14:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 73 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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