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Reach March Madness Round on Kalshi
If Boston College qualifies for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Round of 76, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
34%
Median YES price across 811 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
68% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 34¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.31 | 35.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 Men's College Basketball Round of 76 Qualifiers: Cincinnati · Cincinnati | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 250,067 | Mar 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Creighton qualify for the men's Semifinals? · Creighton | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 50,000 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Duke qualify for the men's Round of 8? · Duke | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 2,025 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Michigan qualify for the men's Championship Game? · Michigan | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 1,992 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Duke qualify for the men's Semifinals? · Duke | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 1,970 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| 2027 Men's College Basketball Round of 76 Qualifiers: Saint Louis · Saint Louis | 81¢ | 81% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 1,815 | Mar 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Arkansas qualify for the men's Semifinals? · Arkansas | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 1,780 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| 2027 Men's College Basketball Round of 76 Qualifiers: Florida St. · Florida St. | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 1,756 | Mar 29, 14:00 UTC |
| 2027 Men's College Basketball Round of 64 Qualifiers: Providence · Providence | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 1,696 | Apr 01, 14:00 UTC |
| 2027 Men's College Basketball Round of 64 Qualifiers: LSU · LSU | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 1,690 | Apr 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will LSU qualify for the men's Round of 32? · LSU | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 1,558 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Missouri qualify for the men's Round of 16? · Missouri | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 1,473 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Florida qualify for the men's Championship Game? · Florida | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 1,371 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Duke qualify for the men's Championship Game? · Duke | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 1,357 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| 2027 Men's College Basketball Round of 76 Qualifiers: Boston College · Boston College | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 1,349 | Mar 29, 14:00 UTC |
| 2027 Men's College Basketball Round of 64 Qualifiers: Iowa · Iowa | 73¢ | 73% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 1,345 | Apr 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Michigan St. qualify for the men's Semifinals? · Michigan St. | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 1,282 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Missouri qualify for the men's Round of 32? · Missouri | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 1,235 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| 2027 Men's College Basketball Round of 76 Qualifiers: Providence · Providence | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 1,226 | Mar 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Vanderbilt qualify for the men's Round of 32? · Vanderbilt | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 1,208 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Vanderbilt qualify for the men's Round of 16? · Vanderbilt | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 1,113 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will UConn qualify for the men's Round of 16? · UConn | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 1,029 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Illinois qualify for the men's Semifinals? · Illinois | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 1,025 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| 2027 Men's College Basketball Round of 64 Qualifiers: Minnesota · Minnesota | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 1,021 | Apr 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Florida qualify for the men's Semifinals? · Florida | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 970 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Arkansas qualify for the men's Round of 8? · Arkansas | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 946 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Iowa qualify for the men's Round of 32? · Iowa | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 943 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| 2027 Men's College Basketball Round of 76 Qualifiers: Miami (FL) · Miami (FL) | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 914 | Mar 29, 14:00 UTC |
| 2027 Men's College Basketball Round of 76 Qualifiers: Kentucky · Kentucky | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 814 | Mar 29, 14:00 UTC |
| 2027 Men's College Basketball Round of 76 Qualifiers: Missouri · Missouri | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 771 | Mar 29, 14:00 UTC |
| 2027 Men's College Basketball Round of 76 Qualifiers: Iowa · Iowa | 74¢ | 74% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 770 | Mar 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Michigan qualify for the men's Round of 16? · Michigan | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 729 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Michigan St. qualify for the men's Round of 8? · Michigan St. | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 714 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Missouri qualify for the men's Round of 8? · Missouri | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 712 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Arizona qualify for the men's Round of 16? · Arizona | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 682 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| 2027 Men's College Basketball Round of 64 Qualifiers: Florida St. · Florida St. | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 655 | Apr 01, 14:00 UTC |
| 2027 Men's College Basketball Round of 64 Qualifiers: Saint Louis · Saint Louis | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 573 | Apr 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will San Diego St. qualify for the men's Round of 32? · San Diego St. | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 563 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Florida St. qualify for the men's Round of 16? · Florida St. | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 556 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Florida St. qualify for the men's Round of 32? · Florida St. | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 536 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 811 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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