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Maximum daily count of ships through the Strait of Hormuz? on Kalshi
If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least 7 in Nov 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the statistical agency or entity responsible for the calculation and/or release of <political stat>.
Market says (typical open contract)
16%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
32% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16¢ (now) | 0.9¢ | $2.94 | 16.9% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 25 in Nov 2026? · At least 25 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,742 | Dec 08, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 8 in Nov 2026? · At least 8 | 81¢ | 81% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 1,738 | Dec 08, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 14 in Nov 2026? · At least 14 | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 1,736 | Dec 08, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 10 in Nov 2026? · At least 10 | 14¢ | 14% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 1,600 | Dec 08, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 16 in Nov 2026? · At least 16 | 14¢ | 14% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 1,379 | Dec 08, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 20 in Nov 2026? · At least 20 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 1,360 | Dec 08, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 9 in Nov 2026? · At least 9 | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 97 | Dec 08, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 7 in Nov 2026? · At least 7 | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Dec 08, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 6 in Nov 2026? · At least 6 | 85¢ | 85% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Dec 08, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 12 in Nov 2026? · At least 12 | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Dec 08, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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