Markets › Kalshi › Economics
U.S. mortgage applications on Kalshi
If the percentage change in the seasonally adjusted Market Composite Index in the first MBA Weekly Applications Survey release after market Issuance is above -8%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Mortgage Bankers Association.
Market says (typical open contract)
58%
Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
83% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 58¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.47 | 59.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mortgage applications change above −8% in the next MBA report? · Above -8% | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 235 | Nov 11, 11:59 UTC |
| Mortgage applications change above 10% in the next MBA report? · Above 10% | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 184 | Nov 11, 11:59 UTC |
| Mortgage applications change above 0% in the next MBA report? · Above 0% | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 50 | Nov 11, 11:59 UTC |
| Mortgage applications change above −10% in the next MBA report? · Above -10% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 40 | Nov 11, 11:59 UTC |
| Mortgage applications change above 4% in the next MBA report? · Above 4% | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 1 | Nov 11, 11:59 UTC |
| Mortgage applications change above 8% in the next MBA report? · Above 8% | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 11, 11:59 UTC |
| Mortgage applications change above −6% in the next MBA report? · Above -6% | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 11, 11:59 UTC |
| Mortgage applications change above 6% in the next MBA report? · Above 6% | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Nov 11, 11:59 UTC |
| Mortgage applications change above −4% in the next MBA report? · Above -4% | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Nov 11, 11:59 UTC |
| Mortgage applications change above −2% in the next MBA report? · Above -2% | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Nov 11, 11:59 UTC |
| Mortgage applications change above 2% in the next MBA report? · Above 2% | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Nov 11, 11:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.