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McDonald's KPI on Kalshi
If McDonald's Corporation reports Above 46900 total systemwide restaurants in Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 51¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.72 | 52.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 2.0% global comparable sales growth in Q1 2027? · Above 2.0% | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 1,919 | Sep 03, 11:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 0.0% global comparable sales growth in Q1 2027? · Above 0.0% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 920 | Sep 03, 11:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 7.0% global comparable sales growth in Q1 2027? · Above 7.0% | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 829 | Sep 03, 11:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 48300 total systemwide restaurants in Q1 2027? · Above 48300 | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 700 | Sep 03, 11:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 1.0% global comparable sales growth in Q1 2027? · Above 1.0% | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 610 | Sep 03, 11:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 47200 total systemwide restaurants in Q1 2027? · Above 47200 | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 332 | Sep 03, 11:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 47900 total systemwide restaurants in Q1 2027? · Above 47900 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 220 | Sep 03, 11:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 3.0% global comparable sales growth in Q1 2027? · Above 3.0% | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 205 | Sep 03, 11:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 47700 total systemwide restaurants in Q1 2027? · Above 47700 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 200 | Sep 03, 11:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 48100 total systemwide restaurants in Q1 2027? · Above 48100 | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 200 | Sep 03, 11:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 47500 total systemwide restaurants in Q1 2027? · Above 47500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 200 | Sep 03, 11:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 47300 total systemwide restaurants in Q1 2027? · Above 47300 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 200 | Sep 03, 11:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 4.0% global comparable sales growth in Q1 2027? · Above 4.0% | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 200 | Sep 03, 11:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above -2.0% global comparable sales growth in Q1 2027? · Above -2.0% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 36 | Sep 03, 11:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 46900 total systemwide restaurants in Q1 2027? · Above 46900 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Sep 03, 11:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 47000 total systemwide restaurants in Q1 2027? · Above 47000 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Sep 03, 11:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 47100 total systemwide restaurants in Q1 2027? · Above 47100 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Sep 03, 11:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 10% global comparable sales growth in Q1 2027? · Above 10% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Sep 03, 11:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 9% global comparable sales growth in Q1 2027? · Above 9% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Sep 03, 11:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 8% global comparable sales growth in Q1 2027? · Above 8% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Sep 03, 11:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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