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McDonald's Annual KPI on Kalshi
If McDonald's Corporation reports Above 0% global comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 19 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 3% global comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 3% | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 4,376 | Apr 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 2% global comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 2% | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 3,523 | Apr 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 2.5% global comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 2.5% | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 2,568 | Apr 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 4% global comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 4% | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 983 | Apr 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 1.5% global comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 1.5% | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 815 | Apr 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 3.5% global comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 3.5% | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 784 | Apr 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 4.5% global comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 4.5% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 485 | Apr 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 47000 total systemwide restaurants in fiscal 2026? · Above 47000 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 397 | Apr 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 47600 total systemwide restaurants in fiscal 2026? · Above 47600 | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 338 | Apr 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 47400 total systemwide restaurants in fiscal 2026? · Above 47400 | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 281 | Apr 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 47200 total systemwide restaurants in fiscal 2026? · Above 47200 | 71¢ | 71% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 196 | Apr 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 5% global comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 5% | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 139 | Apr 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 46800 total systemwide restaurants in fiscal 2026? · Above 46800 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 132 | Apr 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 47800 total systemwide restaurants in fiscal 2026? · Above 47800 | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 24 | Apr 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 0% global comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 0% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Apr 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 0.5% global comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 0.5% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Apr 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 1% global comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 1% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Apr 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 48200 total systemwide restaurants in fiscal 2026? · Above 48200 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Apr 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 48000 total systemwide restaurants in fiscal 2026? · Above 48000 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Apr 27, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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