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WHO WILL GO ON JIMMY FALLON THE TONIGHT SHOW on Kalshi
If Khloé Kardashian is on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: production company's official channels, Apple Podcasts, The Source Agencies are, official website or platform of media, media, etc, media's official social media accounts, HBO Max, in hierarchical order, Spotify, official website or platform where media is distributed (Netflix.
Market says (typical open contract)
17%
Median YES price across 35 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
34% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17¢ (now) | 1.0¢ | $2.91 | 18.0% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Harry Styles be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027? · Harry Styles | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 5,144 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Timothée Chalamet be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027? · Timothée Chalamet | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 3,149 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bad Bunny be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027? · Bad Bunny | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 2,934 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Margot Robbie be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027? · Margot Robbie | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 1,926 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027? · Taylor Swift | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 1,890 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027? · Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 1,683 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Travis Kelce be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027? · Travis Kelce | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 506 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kim Kardashian be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027? · Kim Kardashian | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 441 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Stephen Curry be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027? · Stephen Curry | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 427 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jennifer Lawrence be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027? · Jennifer Lawrence | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 425 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Scarlett Johansson be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027? · Scarlett Johansson | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 405 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will LeBron James be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027? · LeBron James | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 307 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Post Malone be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027? · Post Malone | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 219 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Beyoncé be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027? · Beyoncé | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 204 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lionel Messi be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027? · Lionel Messi | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 190 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Leonardo DiCaprio be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027? · Leonardo DiCaprio | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 134 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Charli D’Amelio be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027? · Charli D’Amelio | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 114 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Billie Eilish be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027? · Billie Eilish | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 97 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Quentin Tarantino be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027? · Quentin Tarantino | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 77 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kendrick Lamar be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027? · Kendrick Lamar | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 63 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kylie Jenner be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027? · Kylie Jenner | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 48 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Martin Scorsese be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027? · Martin Scorsese | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 37 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Simone Biles be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027? · Simone Biles | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 18 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Drake be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027? · Drake | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 17 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Logan Paul be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027? · Logan Paul | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 11 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027? · Abdul El-Sayed | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 1 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rihanna be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027? · Rihanna | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Khloé Kardashian be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027? · Khloé Kardashian | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Josh Shapiro be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027? · Josh Shapiro | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Gavin Newsom be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027? · Gavin Newsom | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027? · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bernie Sanders be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027? · Bernie Sanders | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Barack Obama be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027? · Barack Obama | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kamala Harris be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027? · Kamala Harris | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pete Buttigieg be on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon before 2027? · Pete Buttigieg | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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