What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 39¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.14.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 41% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 39%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Entertainment

WHEN WILL A NEW SEASON OF PRISON BREAK RELEASE on Kalshi

If A New Season of Prison Break has been publicly released Worldwide through official channels before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Deadline, Entertainment Weekly, streaming platform for media in geography, Fox News, The Information, MSNBC, Semafor, Bloomberg News, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, The Hollywood Reporter, official website or verified social media account of the media distributor in geography, Reuters, Axios, IMDb, Spotify, Netflix, Variety, CNN, The New York Times, NBC, Politico, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, CBS, film studios responsible for the production of media.

Market says (typical open contract)

39%

Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

78% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
39¢ (now)	1.7¢	$2.14	40.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will A New Season of Prison Break be released Worldwide before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	9%	437	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will A New Season of Prison Break be released Worldwide before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027	39¢	39%	1.7¢	—	78%	330	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will A New Season of Prison Break be released Worldwide before Jul 1, 2028? · Before Jul 1, 2028	76¢	76%	1.3¢	—	47%	92	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will A New Season of Prison Break be released Worldwide before Jan 1, 2029? · Before Jan 1, 2029	80¢	80%	1.1¢	—	39%	69	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will A New Season of Prison Break be released Worldwide before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028	30¢	30%	1.5¢	—	60%	56	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.