What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 74¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $0.93.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 75% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 74%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Entertainment

Will a quiet place 3 come out in 2027 on Kalshi

If A Quiet Place Part III has been publicly released in the United States through official channels before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Deadline, Entertainment Weekly, streaming platform for media in geography, The Source Agencies are, Fox News, The Information, MSNBC, Semafor, Bloomberg News, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, in hierarchical order, The Hollywood Reporter, official website or verified social media account of the media distributor in geography, Reuters, Axios, IMDb, Spotify, Netflix, Variety, CNN, The New York Times, NBC, Politico, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, CBS, film studios responsible for the production of media.

Market says (typical open contract)

74%

Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

53% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
73¢ (now)	1.4¢	$0.95	74.4%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will A Quiet Place Part III be released in the United States before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028	74¢	74%	1.4¢	—	53%	1,491	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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