Markets › Kalshi › Financials
Mercado Libre KPI on Kalshi
If MercadoLibre, Inc. reports Above 98000000 fintech monthly active users in Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
23%
Median YES price across 19 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
46% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $2.70 | 24.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above 98 million fintech monthly active users in Q1 2027? · Above 98 million | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Sep 03, 20:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above 115 million fintech monthly active users in Q1 2027? · Above 115 million | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Sep 03, 20:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above 109 million fintech monthly active users in Q1 2027? · Above 109 million | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Sep 03, 20:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above 107 million fintech monthly active users in Q1 2027? · Above 107 million | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Sep 03, 20:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above 105 million fintech monthly active users in Q1 2027? · Above 105 million | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 0 | Sep 03, 20:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above 103 million fintech monthly active users in Q1 2027? · Above 103 million | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Sep 03, 20:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above 101 million fintech monthly active users in Q1 2027? · Above 101 million | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Sep 03, 20:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above $32 billion gross merchandise volume in Q1 2027? · Above $32 billion | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Sep 03, 20:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above $28 billion gross merchandise volume in Q1 2027? · Above $28 billion | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Sep 03, 20:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above $27 billion gross merchandise volume in Q1 2027? · Above $27 billion | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Sep 03, 20:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above $26 billion gross merchandise volume in Q1 2027? · Above $26 billion | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Sep 03, 20:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above $25 billion gross merchandise volume in Q1 2027? · Above $25 billion | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 0 | Sep 03, 20:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above $24 billion gross merchandise volume in Q1 2027? · Above $24 billion | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Sep 03, 20:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above 950 million items sold in Q1 2027? · Above 950 million | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Sep 03, 20:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above 900 million items sold in Q1 2027? · Above 900 million | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Sep 03, 20:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above 1200 million items sold in Q1 2027? · Above 1200 million | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Sep 03, 20:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above 1100 million items sold in Q1 2027? · Above 1100 million | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Sep 03, 20:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above 1050 million items sold in Q1 2027? · Above 1050 million | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Sep 03, 20:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above 1000 million items sold in Q1 2027? · Above 1000 million | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Sep 03, 20:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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