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AAR Corp Earnings Call on Kalshi
If Tariff is said by any AAR Corp. representative (including the operator of the call) during the next AAR Corp. earnings call (including the Q+A), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bloomberg.
Market says (typical open contract)
35%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
70% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 35¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.28 | 36.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What will AAR Corp. say during their next earnings call? · MRO Holdings | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 282 | Jan 19, 15:00 UTC |
| What will AAR Corp. say during their next earnings call? · Synergy | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 253 | Jan 19, 15:00 UTC |
| What will AAR Corp. say during their next earnings call? · Delta | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 195 | Jan 19, 15:00 UTC |
| What will AAR Corp. say during their next earnings call? · Aircraft Reconfig | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 100 | Jan 19, 15:00 UTC |
| What will AAR Corp. say during their next earnings call? · Oklahoma City | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 18 | Jan 19, 15:00 UTC |
| What will AAR Corp. say during their next earnings call? · Tariff | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Jan 19, 15:00 UTC |
| What will AAR Corp. say during their next earnings call? · Pritzker | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Jan 19, 15:00 UTC |
| What will AAR Corp. say during their next earnings call? · Iran / Middle East | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Jan 19, 15:00 UTC |
| What will AAR Corp. say during their next earnings call? · Headwind | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Jan 19, 15:00 UTC |
| What will AAR Corp. say during their next earnings call? · El Salvador | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Jan 19, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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