Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Mexican presidential election winner on Kalshi
If Samuel García wins the 2030 Mexican presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Instituto Nacional Electoral, Tribunal Electoral del Poder Judicial de la Federación.
Market says (typical open contract)
3%
Median YES price across 13 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
6% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Omar García Harfuch win the 2030 Mexican presidential election? · Omar García Harfuch | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 246 | Jun 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Samuel García win the 2030 Mexican presidential election? · Samuel García | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Jun 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ricardo Salinas Pliego win the 2030 Mexican presidential election? · Ricardo Salinas Pliego | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jun 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ricardo Anaya win the 2030 Mexican presidential election? · Ricardo Anaya | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jun 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Mara Lezama win the 2030 Mexican presidential election? · Mara Lezama | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jun 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Mauricio Kuri win the 2030 Mexican presidential election? · Mauricio Kuri | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Jun 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Marcelo Ebrard win the 2030 Mexican presidential election? · Marcelo Ebrard | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jun 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Lilly Téllez win the 2030 Mexican presidential election? · Lilly Téllez | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Jun 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Luis Donaldo Colosio win the 2030 Mexican presidential election? · Luis Donaldo Colosio | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Jun 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Gerardo Fernández Noroña win the 2030 Mexican presidential election? · Gerardo Fernández Noroña | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jun 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Clara Brugada win the 2030 Mexican presidential election? · Clara Brugada | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jun 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Alejandro Moreno win the 2030 Mexican presidential election? · Alejandro Moreno | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Jun 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Andrés López Beltrán win the 2030 Mexican presidential election? · Andrés López Beltrán | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Jun 02, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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