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Michigan: Benson vs. El-Sayed margin on Kalshi
If Jocelyn Benson's margin in the Michigan governor election minus Abdul El-Sayed's margin in the Michigan U.S. Senate election is between 9 and 12 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Michigan Board of State Canvassers.
Market says (typical open contract)
19%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
38% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19¢ (now) | 1.1¢ | $2.83 | 20.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jocelyn Benson's governor margin minus Abdul El-Sayed's Senate margin be between 6 and 9 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Benson by 6-9 | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 8,053 | Dec 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Jocelyn Benson's governor margin minus Abdul El-Sayed's Senate margin be between 3 and 6 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Benson by 3-6 | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 3,865 | Dec 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Jocelyn Benson's governor margin minus Abdul El-Sayed's Senate margin be between 0 and 3 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Benson by 0-3 | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 2,313 | Dec 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed's Senate margin minus Jocelyn Benson's governor margin be between 0.01 and 3 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · El-Sayed by 0-3 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,274 | Dec 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Jocelyn Benson's governor margin minus Abdul El-Sayed's Senate margin be between 9 and 12 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Benson by 9-12 | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 1,301 | Dec 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Jocelyn Benson's governor margin minus Abdul El-Sayed's Senate margin be at least 15 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Benson by 15+ | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 1,192 | Dec 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Jocelyn Benson's governor margin minus Abdul El-Sayed's Senate margin be between 12 and 15 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Benson by 12-15 | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 1,152 | Dec 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed's Senate margin minus Jocelyn Benson's governor margin be at least 3 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · El-Sayed by 3+ | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,032 | Dec 01, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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