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Michelin Star Losses on Kalshi
If Per Se has lost at least one Michelin star in the 2026 annual Michelin Guide compared with the prior annual edition, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Michelin.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Eleven Madison Park lose at least one Michelin star in 2026? · Eleven Madison Park | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 2,438 | Dec 14, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Masa lose at least one Michelin star in 2026? · Masa | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 839 | Dec 14, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Jean-Georges lose at least one Michelin star in 2026? · Jean-Georges | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 506 | Dec 14, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Per Se lose at least one Michelin star in 2026? · Per Se | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 486 | Dec 14, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Daniel lose at least one Michelin star in 2026? · Daniel | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 289 | Dec 14, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Le Bernardin lose at least one Michelin star in 2026? · Le Bernardin | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 55 | Dec 14, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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