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Midterm margin of victory on Kalshi
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas by 7.3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 5166 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 3 percentage points? · James Talarico, 3+ pts | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 987,192 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 5 percentage points? · James Talarico, 5+ pts | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 882,976 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 9 percentage points? · James Talarico, 9+ pts | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 777,814 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 5 percentage points? · El-Sayed, 5+ pts | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 672,713 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 3 percentage points? · El-Sayed, 3+ pts | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 668,165 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 2 percentage points? · James Talarico, 2+ pts | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 600,388 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 4 percentage points? · James Talarico, 4+ pts | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 577,679 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 4 percentage points? · El-Sayed, 4+ pts | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 574,722 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 7 percentage points? · James Talarico, 7+ pts | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 571,419 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 8 percentage points? · James Talarico, 8+ pts | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 476,857 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 12 percentage points? · James Talarico, 12+ pts | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 440,444 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the governor election in Florida be at least 12 percentage points? · Donalds, 12+ pts | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 377,093 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 13 percentage points? · James Talarico, 13+ pts | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 367,236 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 6 percentage points? · James Talarico, 6+ pts | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 356,516 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 1 percentage points? · James Talarico, 1+ pts | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 348,918 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 2 percentage points? · El-Sayed, 2+ pts | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 332,789 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 11 percentage points? · El-Sayed, 11+ pts | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 318,682 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 6 percentage points? · El-Sayed, 6+ pts | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 315,707 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 7 percentage points? · El-Sayed, 7+ pts | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 297,265 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Florida be at least 12 percentage points? · Moody, 12+ pts | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 293,224 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Florida be at least 8 percentage points? · Moody, 8+ pts | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 287,103 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 5.5 percentage points? · El-Sayed, 5.5+ pts | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 257,342 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Florida be at least 6 percentage points? · Moody, 6+ pts | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 254,312 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the governor election in Florida be at least 3 percentage points? · Donalds, 3+ pts | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 251,269 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 3.5 percentage points? · El-Sayed, 3.5+ pts | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 250,572 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 15 percentage points? · El-Sayed, 15+ pts | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 239,157 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 1 percentage points? · El-Sayed, 1+ pts | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 235,739 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Florida be at least 10 percentage points? · Moody, 10+ pts | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 230,740 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 4.5 percentage points? · El-Sayed, 4.5+ pts | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 220,475 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 16 percentage points? · James Talarico, 16+ pts | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 219,567 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the governor election in Florida be at least 15 percentage points? · Donalds, 15+ pts | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 215,904 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the governor election in Florida be at least 0.5 percentage points? · Donalds, 0.5+ pts | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 214,221 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 11 percentage points? · James Talarico, 11+ pts | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 211,583 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 2.5 percentage points? · El-Sayed, 2.5+ pts | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 206,238 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 14 percentage points? · James Talarico, 14+ pts | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 196,294 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Florida be at least 7 percentage points? · Moody, 7+ pts | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 182,693 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 8 percentage points? · Cooper, 8+ pts | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 173,557 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Maine be at least 3 percentage points? · Jackson, 3+ pts | 99¢ | 99% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 171,712 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the governor election in Florida be at least 18 percentage points? · Donalds, 18+ pts | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 170,864 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Texas be at least 1 percentage points? · Hinojosa, 1+ pts | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 170,408 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 5166 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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