Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Midterm Voter Turnout on Kalshi
If the total vote count for all participants in New York Governor General Election is above 8100000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the relevant election commission of the country in which <election> takes place.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 5062 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the total vote count for all participants in Texas Senate General Election be above 10000000? · Above 10.00M | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 122,323 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in Texas Senate General Election be above 11200000? · Above 11.20M | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 46,523 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in Texas Senate General Election be above 10600000? · Above 10.60M | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 28,237 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in Texas Senate General Election be above 10150000? · Above 10.15M | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 24,117 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in Michigan Senate General Election be above 5600000? · Above 5.60M | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 20,225 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election be above 10900000? · Above 10.9M | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 16,849 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in Texas Senate General Election be above 11800000? · Above 11.80M | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 14,191 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in Texas Senate General Election be above 10300000? · Above 10.30M | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 14,139 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election be above 12000000? · Above 12M | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 14,028 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election be above 13100000? · Above 13.1M | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 13,890 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in Texas Senate General Election be above 9400000? · Above 9.40M | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 13,513 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in Michigan Senate General Election be above 5000000? · Above 5.00M | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 11,330 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in Michigan Senate General Election be above 5300000? · Above 5.30M | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 11,328 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in Texas Governor General Election be above 11000000? · Above 11M | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 11,170 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in Texas Senate General Election be above 13500000? · Above 13.50M | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 10,698 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in Arizona 02 House General Election be above 390000? · Above 390K | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 10,366 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election be above 12600000? · Above 12.6M | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 10,023 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in Texas Senate General Election be above 8800000? · Above 8.80M | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 9,885 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in Texas Governor General Election be above 10500000? · Above 10.5M | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 8,877 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election be above 11500000? · Above 11.5M | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 8,840 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in Michigan Senate General Election be above 4700000? · Above 4.70M | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 8,342 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in Florida Governor General Election be above 8100000? · Above 8.1M | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 7,899 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in Louisiana 06 House General Election be above 230000? · Above 230K | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 7,189 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in Maine Senate General Election be above 820000? · Above 820K | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 6,203 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in Michigan Senate General Election be above 5900000? · Above 5.90M | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,130 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in Texas Governor General Election be above 8800000? · Above 8.8M | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,635 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in South Carolina Senate General Election be above 2000000? · Above 2.00M | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 5,303 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in Georgia Governor General Election be above 4100000? · Above 4.1M | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 5,301 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in Texas Senate General Election be above 12900000? · Above 12.90M | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,125 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in North Carolina Senate General Election be above 3800000? · Above 3.80M | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 4,934 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in Texas Governor General Election be above 12000000? · Above 12M | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,840 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election be above 14200000? · Above 14.2M | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 4,838 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in Texas Governor General Election be above 9200000? · Above 9.2M | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,600 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in Texas Senate General Election be above 12400000? · Above 12.40M | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,229 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in Florida Governor General Election be above 8500000? · Above 8.5M | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 4,171 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in Texas Governor General Election be above 8400000? · Above 8.4M | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,129 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in Texas Governor General Election be above 9700000? · Above 9.7M | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,084 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in Texas Governor General Election be above 11500000? · Above 11.5M | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,073 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in Ohio Senate General Election be above 5100000? · Above 5.10M | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,025 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in Wisconsin Governor General Election be above 2800000? · Above 2.8M | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 3,831 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 5062 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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