What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 18¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.85.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 20% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 18%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Science and Technology

All Millennium Prize Problems solved on Kalshi

If all remaining Millennium Prize Problems are independently resolved before Jan 1, 2040 under the Payout Criterion and each resolution remains qualifying through expiration, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: The Washington Post, The Economist, Science, The Source Agencies are, in hierarchical order, the Clay Mathematics Institute, the New York Times, Bloomberg News, The Wall Street Journal, the American Mathematical Society, the International Mathematical Union, The Guardian, the Associated Press, Reuters, Scientific American.

Market says (typical open contract)

18%

Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

37% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
18¢ (now)	1.0¢	$2.87	19.0%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will all remaining Millennium Prize Problems be solved before 2028? · Before 2028	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	409	Jan 07, 15:00 UTC
Will all remaining Millennium Prize Problems be solved before 2040? · Before 2040	38¢	38%	1.6¢	—	75%	90	Jan 07, 15:00 UTC
Will all remaining Millennium Prize Problems be solved before 2029? · Before 2029	13¢	13%	0.8¢	—	26%	69	Jan 07, 15:00 UTC
Will all remaining Millennium Prize Problems be solved before 2035? · Before 2035	26¢	26%	1.3¢	—	51%	36	Jan 07, 15:00 UTC
Will all remaining Millennium Prize Problems be solved before 2030? · Before 2030	18¢	18%	1.1¢	—	37%	36	Jan 07, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.