What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 68¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.12.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 70% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 68%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

MJ schedule on Kalshi

If marijuana is rescheduled from Schedule I to a lower drug schedule under the Controlled Substances Act before Oct 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC, Fox News, the Federal Register, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, the United States Congress, the Department of Justice, Semafor, Bloomberg News, The Information, CBS, NBC, the Drug Enforcement Administration, The New York Times, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico.

Market says (typical open contract)

68%

Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

64% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
68¢ (now)	1.5¢	$1.12	69.5%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
When will marijuana be rescheduled? · Before Jan 1, 2027	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	880,124	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
When will marijuana be rescheduled? · Before Jan 1, 2028	68¢	68%	1.5¢	—	63%	144,198	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
When will marijuana be rescheduled? · Before Jan 20, 2029	80¢	80%	1.1¢	—	40%	88,731	Jan 20, 04:59 UTC
When will marijuana be rescheduled? · Before Apr 1, 2027	38¢	38%	1.6¢	—	76%	6,410	Apr 01, 03:59 UTC
When will marijuana be rescheduled? · Before Jul 1, 2027	54¢	54%	1.7¢	—	91%	6,130	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
When will marijuana be rescheduled? · Before Oct 1, 2027	68¢	68%	1.5¢	—	64%	2,658	Oct 01, 03:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.