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Pro Baseball Debut on Kalshi
If Leo De Vries plays for any MLB team in a regular season or playoff game before Nov 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
70%
Median YES price across 103 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
61% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Leo De Vries play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2027? · Before May 1, 2027 | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 14,605 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Leo De Vries play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2027? · Before Nov 1, 2027 | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 4,379 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Aidan Miller play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2027? · Before May 1, 2027 | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 3,155 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Thomas White play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2027? · Before May 1, 2027 | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 2,076 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Jackson Flora play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2028? · Before Nov 1, 2028 | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 1,865 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Jesús Made play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2027? · Before May 1, 2027 | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 1,303 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Franklin Arias play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2027? · Before Aug 1, 2027 | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 1,221 | Aug 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Roch Cholowsky play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2028? · Before Nov 1, 2028 | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 1,188 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Seth Hernandez play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2029? · Before Nov 1, 2029 | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 1,086 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Franklin Arias play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2028? · Before Nov 1, 2028 | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 903 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Jesús Made play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2027? · Before Aug 1, 2027 | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 888 | Aug 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Jackson Flora play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2029? · Before May 1, 2029 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 788 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Roch Cholowsky play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2029? · Before May 1, 2029 | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 787 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Jackson Flora play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2029? · Before Aug 1, 2029 | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 749 | Aug 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Franklin Arias play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2028? · Before Aug 1, 2028 | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 709 | Aug 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Franklin Arias play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2028? · Before May 1, 2028 | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 701 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Roch Cholowsky play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2029? · Before Aug 1, 2029 | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 685 | Aug 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Seth Hernandez play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2029? · Before Aug 1, 2029 | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 650 | Aug 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Jesús Made play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2027? · Before Nov 1, 2027 | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 582 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Luis Peña play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2028? · Before Nov 1, 2028 | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 563 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Luis Peña play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2028? · Before May 1, 2028 | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 557 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Vahn Lackey play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2031? · Before Nov 1, 2031 | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 539 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Jackson Flora play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2029? · Before Nov 1, 2029 | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 532 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Jesús Made play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2028? · Before Nov 1, 2028 | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 512 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Franklin Arias play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2027? · Before May 1, 2027 | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 452 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Vahn Lackey play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2030? · Before Nov 1, 2030 | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 433 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Franklin Arias play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2027? · Before Nov 1, 2027 | 85¢ | 85% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 433 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Vahn Lackey play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2029? · Before May 1, 2029 | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 423 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Roch Cholowsky play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2030? · Before May 1, 2030 | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 414 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Roch Cholowsky play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2028? · Before May 1, 2028 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 413 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Thomas White play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2027? · Before Nov 1, 2027 | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 410 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Grady Emerson play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2029? · Before Nov 1, 2029 | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 406 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Roch Cholowsky play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2028? · Before Aug 1, 2028 | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 400 | Aug 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Eli Willits play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2027? · Before Aug 1, 2027 | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 393 | Aug 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Eli Willits play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2028? · Before May 1, 2028 | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 372 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Eduardo Quintero play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2028? · Before Aug 1, 2028 | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 371 | Aug 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Grady Emerson play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2030? · Before May 1, 2030 | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 346 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Grady Emerson play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2030? · Before Aug 1, 2030 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 342 | Aug 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Jackson Flora play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2030? · Before Aug 1, 2030 | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 326 | Aug 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Roch Cholowsky play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2030? · Before Nov 1, 2030 | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 321 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 103 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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