What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 2¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.45.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 2% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 2%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

Pro Baseball Next Team on Kalshi

If Ronald Acuna's next team is the Washington Pro Baseball team before Mar 25, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 93 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

3% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.47	1.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Tarik Skubal's next team before Mar 25, 2027: New York M · New York M	40¢	40%	1.7¢	—	81%	22,940	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Tarik Skubal's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Los Angeles A · Los Angeles A	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	21,256	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Tarik Skubal's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Los Angeles D · Los Angeles D	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	45%	19,359	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Tarik Skubal's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Chicago C · Chicago C	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	17,586	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Tarik Skubal's next team before Mar 25, 2027: San Diego · San Diego	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	14,765	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Tarik Skubal's next team before Mar 25, 2027: New York Y · New York Y	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	11,422	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Tarik Skubal's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Chicago WS · Chicago WS	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	10,907	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Francisco Lindor's next team before Mar 25, 2027: New York M · New York M	88¢	88%	0.7¢	—	24%	7,871	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Tarik Skubal's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Detroit · Detroit	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	7,777	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Tarik Skubal's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Toronto · Toronto	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	7,428	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Tarik Skubal's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Philadelphia · Philadelphia	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	6,417	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Tarik Skubal's next team before Mar 25, 2027: San Francisco · San Francisco	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	5,977	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Tarik Skubal's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Retires / No Team · Retires / No Team	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	5,607	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Tarik Skubal's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Arizona · Arizona	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	4,535	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Tarik Skubal's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Atlanta · Atlanta	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	4,313	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Tarik Skubal's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Milwaukee · Milwaukee	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	4,305	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Francisco Lindor's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Boston · Boston	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	3,901	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Tarik Skubal's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Texas · Texas	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	3,264	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Ronald Acuna's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Atlanta · Atlanta	89¢	89%	0.7¢	—	22%	3,184	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Tarik Skubal's next team before Mar 25, 2027: St. Louis · St. Louis	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	2,616	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Tarik Skubal's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Cleveland · Cleveland	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	2,489	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Tarik Skubal's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Boston · Boston	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	2,290	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Tarik Skubal's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Baltimore · Baltimore	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	2,191	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Tarik Skubal's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Houston · Houston	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	1,536	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Francisco Lindor's next team before Mar 25, 2027: New York Y · New York Y	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	1,392	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Francisco Lindor's next team before Mar 25, 2027: San Francisco · San Francisco	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	14%	1,207	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Francisco Lindor's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Cleveland · Cleveland	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	7%	1,173	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Tarik Skubal's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Seattle · Seattle	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	788	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Francisco Lindor's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Colorado · Colorado	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	762	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Ronald Acuna's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Los Angeles D · Los Angeles D	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	685	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Ronald Acuna's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Boston · Boston	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	681	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Ronald Acuna's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Seattle · Seattle	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	24%	669	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Ronald Acuna's next team before Mar 25, 2027: New York Y · New York Y	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	22%	669	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Francisco Lindor's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Milwaukee · Milwaukee	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	521	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Ronald Acuna's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Milwaukee · Milwaukee	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	516	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Francisco Lindor's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Philadelphia · Philadelphia	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	400	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Ronald Acuna's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Kansas City · Kansas City	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	367	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Francisco Lindor's next team before Mar 25, 2027: A's · A's	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	322	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Ronald Acuna's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Chicago WS · Chicago WS	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	281	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
Ronald Acuna's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Toronto · Toronto	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	250	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 93 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.