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Pro Baseball National League Manager of the Year on Kalshi
If Don Mattingly wins the Pro Baseball National League Manager of the Year in the 2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 17 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pat Murphy win NL MOTY? · Pat Murphy | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 227,897 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Walt Weiss win NL MOTY? · Walt Weiss | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 220,607 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Craig Counsell win NL MOTY? · Craig Counsell | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 68,142 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Don Mattingly win NL MOTY · Don Mattingly | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 63,484 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Clayton McCullough win NL MOTY? · Clayton McCullough | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 47,704 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Oliver Marmol win NL MOTY? · Oliver Marmol | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 25,884 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Craig Stammen win NL MOTY? · Craig Stammen | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 21,560 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Don Kelly win NL MOTY? · Don Kelly | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 20,482 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Blake Butera win NL MOTY? · Blake Butera | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 20,359 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Torey Lovullo win NL MOTY? · Torey Lovullo | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 13,272 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dave Roberts win NL MOTY? · Dave Roberts | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 10,389 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Terry Francona win NL MOTY? · Terry Francona | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 8,768 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rob Thomson win NL MOTY? · Rob Thomson | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,790 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Carlos Mendoza win NL MOTY? · Carlos Mendoza | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,142 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tony Vitello win NL MOTY? · Tony Vitello | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,410 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Warren Schaeffer win NL MOTY? · Warren Schaeffer | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 244 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tie/Co-Winners win NL MOTY? · Tie/Co-Winners | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 10 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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