What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 34¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.33.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 35% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 34%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

Pro Baseball Opening Day on Kalshi

If the first game in the 2027 MLB regular season has taken place prior to May 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fox Sports, Semafor, ABC, Bloomberg, NBC, The Washington Post, Associated Press, The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, The Information, Politico, Axios, MSNBC, CNN, the New York Times, CBS.

Market says (typical open contract)

34%

Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

67% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
33¢ (now)	1.5¢	$2.34	34.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the first regular season game in the 2027 Pro Baseball season take place before Jul 13, 2027? · Before Jul 13, 2027	72¢	72%	1.4¢	—	57%	38,934	Jul 13, 03:59 UTC
Will the first regular season game in the 2027 Pro Baseball season take place before Apr 30, 2027? · Before Apr 30, 2027	34¢	34%	1.6¢	—	67%	16,576	Apr 30, 03:59 UTC
Will the first regular season game in the 2027 Pro Baseball season take place before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027	31¢	31%	1.5¢	—	62%	13,045	Apr 01, 03:59 UTC
Will the first regular season game in the 2027 Pro Baseball season take place before May 31, 2027? · Before May 31, 2027	51¢	51%	1.7¢	—	98%	11,524	May 31, 03:59 UTC
Will the first regular season game in the 2027 Pro Baseball season take place before Mar 25, 2027? · Before Mar 25, 2027	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	45%	9,655	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.