Markets › Kalshi › Sports
Major League Soccer Game on Kalshi
If Tie is the result of the Saint Louis vs Los Angeles F professional MLS soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 23, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: MLS.
Market says (typical open contract)
38%
Median YES price across 21 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
75% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 38¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.17 | 39.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle wins · Seattle | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 701 | Nov 22, 03:00 UTC |
| Orlando wins · Orlando | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 608 | Nov 22, 00:30 UTC |
| Salt Lake wins · Salt Lake | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 497 | Nov 22, 03:00 UTC |
| Cincinnati wins · Cincinnati | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 323 | Nov 22, 00:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 107 | Nov 22, 00:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 17 | Nov 22, 03:00 UTC |
| Chicago Fire wins · Chicago Fire | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 15 | Nov 24, 23:30 UTC |
| Dallas wins · Dallas | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 11 | Nov 23, 21:00 UTC |
| Miami wins · Miami | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 8 | Nov 23, 23:00 UTC |
| Portland wins · Portland | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 6 | Nov 23, 21:00 UTC |
| Philadelphia wins · Philadelphia | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 2 | Nov 23, 19:00 UTC |
| Columbus wins · Columbus | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 0 | Nov 23, 23:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Nov 26, 01:00 UTC |
| Saint Louis wins · Saint Louis | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Nov 26, 01:00 UTC |
| Los Angeles F wins · Los Angeles F | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Nov 26, 01:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Nov 23, 19:00 UTC |
| New England wins · New England | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Nov 23, 19:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Nov 23, 21:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Nov 23, 23:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Nov 24, 23:30 UTC |
| Charlotte wins · Charlotte | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Nov 24, 23:30 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.