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MLS Western Conference winner? on Kalshi
If Vancouver is the 2026 Major League Soccer (MLS) Western Conference champion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
3% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Los Angeles F win the MLS Western Conference? · Los Angeles F | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 46,041 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Vancouver win the MLS Western Conference? · Vancouver | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 27,769 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will San Jose win the MLS Western Conference? · San Jose | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 18,290 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Saint Louis win the MLS Western Conference? · Saint Louis | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 13,748 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Seattle win the MLS Western Conference? · Seattle | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 13,726 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Houston win the MLS Western Conference? · Houston | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 11,158 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Portland win the MLS Western Conference? · Portland | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 10,622 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Austin win the MLS Western Conference? · Austin | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 7,750 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will San Diego win the MLS Western Conference? · San Diego | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 6,050 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Salt Lake win the MLS Western Conference? · Salt Lake | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 5,892 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Los Angeles G win the MLS Western Conference? · Los Angeles G | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 5,185 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Minnesota win the MLS Western Conference? · Minnesota | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,056 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dallas win the MLS Western Conference? · Dallas | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 4,617 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Colorado win the MLS Western Conference? · Colorado | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 2,346 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kansas City win the MLS Western Conference? · Kansas City | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,691 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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