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Fighters to comepete in MVP event on Kalshi
If Tony Ferguson competes in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fox Sports, ESPN, AP.
Market says (typical open contract)
9%
Median YES price across 48 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
18% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9¢ (now) | 0.6¢ | $3.19 | 9.6% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chandler to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2027? · Michael Chandler | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 5,099 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Muhammad Mokaev to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028? · Muhammad Mokaev | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 3,754 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Jake Paul to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2027? · Jake Paul | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 3,667 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Sean O'Malley to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2027? · Sean O'Malley | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 3,047 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Amanda Serrano to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028? · Amanda Serrano | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 2,836 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Jake Paul to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028? · Jake Paul | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 1,993 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Amanda Serrano to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2027? · Amanda Serrano | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 1,759 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Michael Page to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028? · Michael Page | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 1,516 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Floyd Mayweather Jr. to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2027? · Floyd Mayweather Jr. | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,166 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Ilia Topuria to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2027? · Ilia Topuria | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 1,147 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Tony Ferguson to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2027? · Tony Ferguson | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 953 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Conor McGregor to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2027? · Conor McGregor | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 818 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Canelo Alvarez to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2027? · Canelo Alvarez | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 793 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Gervonta Davis to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028? · Gervonta Davis | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 721 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Gervonta Davis to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2027? · Gervonta Davis | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 615 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Michael Page to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2027? · Michael Page | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 551 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Ilia Topuria to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028? · Ilia Topuria | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 425 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Conor McGregor to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028? · Conor McGregor | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 422 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Sean O'Malley to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028? · Sean O'Malley | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 304 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Tyson Fury to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2027? · Tyson Fury | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 286 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Charles Oliveira to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2027? · Charles Oliveira | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 242 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Ryan Garcia to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028? · Ryan Garcia | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 238 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Canelo Alvarez to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028? · Canelo Alvarez | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 222 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Ryan Garcia to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2027? · Ryan Garcia | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 220 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Oleksandr Usyk to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2027? · Oleksandr Usyk | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 220 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Anthony Joshua to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2027? · Anthony Joshua | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 220 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Paulo Henrique Costa to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2027? · Paulo Henrique Costa | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 214 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Saygid Izagakhmaev to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028? · Saygid Izagakhmaev | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 200 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Kamaru Usman to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2027? · Kamaru Usman | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 193 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Tyson Fury to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028? · Tyson Fury | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 174 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Saygid Izagakhmaev to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2027? · Saygid Izagakhmaev | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 101 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Floyd Mayweather Jr. to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028? · Floyd Mayweather Jr. | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 23 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Tony Ferguson to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028? · Tony Ferguson | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 17 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Michael Chandler to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028? · Michael Chandler | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 4 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Oleksandr Usyk to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028? · Oleksandr Usyk | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Qileng Aori to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028? · Qileng Aori | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Bruno Lopes to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028? · Bruno Lopes | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Lyman Good to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028? · Lyman Good | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Jennifer Maia to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028? · Jennifer Maia | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Paulo Costa to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028? · Paulo Costa | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 48 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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