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MMA Fight on Kalshi
If Aleksandra Savicheva wins the Aleksandra Savicheva vs Jacinta Austin professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Nov 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, PFL, Tapology, Sofascore, Flashscore.
Market says (typical open contract)
49%
Median YES price across 24 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
98% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexei Pergande wins · Alexei Pergande | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 268 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Akhmed Magomedov wins · Akhmed Magomedov | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 38 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Vadim Nemkov wins · Vadim Nemkov | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 32 | Nov 28, 16:00 UTC |
| Sergei Bilostenniy wins · Sergei Bilostenniy | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 25 | Nov 28, 16:00 UTC |
| Ernesto Rodriguez wins · Ernesto Rodriguez | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 6 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Rhys McKee wins · Rhys McKee | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 5 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Aleksandra Savicheva wins · Aleksandra Savicheva | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Jacinta Austin wins · Jacinta Austin | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Pouya Rahmani wins · Pouya Rahmani | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 28, 16:00 UTC |
| Oleg Popov wins · Oleg Popov | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 28, 16:00 UTC |
| Lewis McGrillen-Evans wins · Lewis McGrillen-Evans | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 28, 16:00 UTC |
| Nawras Abzakh wins · Nawras Abzakh | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 28, 16:00 UTC |
| Sergio Pettis wins · Sergio Pettis | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 28, 16:00 UTC |
| Joji Goto wins · Joji Goto | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 28, 16:00 UTC |
| Patrick Habirora wins · Patrick Habirora | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 28, 16:00 UTC |
| Omar El Dafrawy wins · Omar El Dafrawy | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 28, 16:00 UTC |
| Khasan Magomedsharipov wins · Khasan Magomedsharipov | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Adam Borics wins · Adam Borics | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Maxwell Djantou Nana wins · Maxwell Djantou Nana | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Denis Goltsov wins · Denis Goltsov | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Shem Rock wins · Shem Rock | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Connor Hughes wins · Connor Hughes | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Styve Ngono wins · Styve Ngono | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Khabib Nabiev wins · Khabib Nabiev | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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