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MMA Next Fight on Kalshi
If the first officially sanctioned MMA fight that Song Yadong competes in is against Umar Nurmagomedov after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
18%
Median YES price across 171 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
37% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18¢ (now) | 1.0¢ | $2.87 | 19.0% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Paddy Pimblett · Paddy Pimblett | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 2,773 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Sean O'Malley next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Payton Talbott · Payton Talbott | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 2,177 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Sean O'Malley next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Petr Yan · Petr Yan | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 1,898 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Song Yadong next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Petr Yan · Petr Yan | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 1,797 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Song Yadong next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Merab Dvalishvili · Merab Dvalishvili | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 1,561 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Song Yadong next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Mario Bautista · Mario Bautista | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 1,229 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Magomed Ankalaev next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Carlos Ulberg · Carlos Ulberg | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 1,151 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Ilia Topuria next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Arman Tsarukyan · Arman Tsarukyan | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 1,109 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Ilia Topuria next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Justin Gaethje · Justin Gaethje | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 870 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Magomed Ankalaev next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Navajo Stirling · Navajo Stirling | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 813 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Sean O'Malley next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Merab Dvalishvili · Merab Dvalishvili | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 808 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Raul Rosas Jr. next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Aiemann Zahabi · Aiemann Zahabi | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 800 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Song Yadong next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Payton Talbott · Payton Talbott | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 767 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Magomed Ankalaev next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Paulo Costa · Paulo Costa | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 733 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Raul Rosas Jr. next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Deiveson Figueiredo · Deiveson Figueiredo | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 700 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Dricus Du Plessis next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Brendan Allen · Brendan Allen | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 691 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Magomed Ankalaev next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Robert Whittaker · Robert Whittaker | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 656 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Magomed Ankalaev next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Jiří Procházka · Jiří Procházka | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 655 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Sean Strickland next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Nassourdine Imavov · Nassourdine Imavov | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 644 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Dricus Du Plessis next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Sean Strickland · Sean Strickland | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 608 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Dricus Du Plessis next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Khamzat Chimaev · Khamzat Chimaev | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 585 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Song Yadong next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Sean O'Malley · Sean O'Malley | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 565 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Conor McGregor next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Max Holloway · Max Holloway | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 506 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Conor McGregor next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Nate Diaz · Nate Diaz | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 444 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Conor McGregor next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Michael Chandler · Michael Chandler | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 386 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Raul Rosas Jr. next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: David Martinez · David Martinez | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 338 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Dricus Du Plessis next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Nassourdine Imavov · Nassourdine Imavov | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 323 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Song Yadong next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Cory Sandhagen · Cory Sandhagen | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 246 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Dricus Du Plessis next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Gregory Rodrigues · Gregory Rodrigues | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 218 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Dricus Du Plessis next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Joe Pyfer · Joe Pyfer | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 156 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Magomed Ankalaev next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Khalil Rountree Jr. · Khalil Rountree Jr. | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 128 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Sean Strickland next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Khamzat Chimaev · Khamzat Chimaev | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 109 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Raul Rosas Jr. next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Cory Sandhagen · Cory Sandhagen | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 97 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Sean O'Malley next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Kyler Phillips · Kyler Phillips | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 54 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Sean O'Malley next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Song Yadong · Song Yadong | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 52 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Sean O'Malley next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Umar Nurmagomedov · Umar Nurmagomedov | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 52 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Sean O'Malley next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Cory Sandhagen · Cory Sandhagen | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 52 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Sean O'Malley next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Raul Rosas Jr. · Raul Rosas Jr. | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 51 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Sean O'Malley next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Marlon Vera · Marlon Vera | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 51 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Sean O'Malley next fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028: Marcus McGhee · Marcus McGhee | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 51 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 171 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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