What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 10¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.15.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 11% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 10%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Entertainment

will person appear in project? on Kalshi

If Timothée Chalamet makes a qualifying appearance in any paid promotional content whose primary purpose is to market, promote, or advertise a mobile game that is available, or intended to be available, on smartphones or tablets before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: producer of project, ABC, Fox News, People Magazine, The Wall Street Journal, Entertainment Weekly, MSNBC, TMZ, network or platform where project screens, NBC, Deadline Hollywood, The Washington Post, Variety, Internet Movie Database, The New York Times, Rolling Stone, Reuters, ESPN, The Hollywood Reporter, The Athletic, CNN, the Associated Press, CBS, Bloomberg News.

Market says (typical open contract)

10%

Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

20% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
10¢ (now)	0.6¢	$3.15	10.6%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Scarlett Johansson appear in mobile game advertisement this year? · Scarlett Johansson	55¢	55%	1.7¢	—	89%	857	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Shaquille O'Neal appear in mobile game advertisement this year? · Shaquille O'Neal	24¢	24%	1.3¢	—	49%	776	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will The Rock appear in mobile game advertisement this year? · The Rock	21¢	21%	1.2¢	—	42%	454	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Timothée Chalamet appear in mobile game advertisement this year? · Timothée Chalamet	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	381	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Dua Lipa appear in mobile game advertisement this year? · Dua Lipa	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	61	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Selena Gomez appear in mobile game advertisement this year? · Selena Gomez	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	52	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Paul George appear in mobile game advertisement this year? · Paul George	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	29%	3	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Beyoncé appear in mobile game advertisement this year? · Beyoncé	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	1	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Jay-Z appear in mobile game advertisement this year? · Jay-Z	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	1	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Taylor Swift appear in mobile game advertisement this year? · Taylor Swift	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	9%	1	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.