What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 9¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.19.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 10% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 9%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Moldova presidency on Kalshi

If Renato Usatîi wins the next Moldovan presidential election before 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: BBC, Financial Times, The New York Times, Reuters, the Associated Press.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

18% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
9¢ (now)	0.6¢	$3.19	9.6%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Who will win the next Moldovan presidential election? · Igor Grosu	14¢	14%	0.8¢	—	27%	2,586	Oct 31, 14:00 UTC
Who will win the next Moldovan presidential election? · Evghenia Gutul	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	2,221	Oct 31, 14:00 UTC
Who will win the next Moldovan presidential election? · Alexandr Stoianoglo	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	40%	1,957	Oct 31, 14:00 UTC
Who will win the next Moldovan presidential election? · Igor Dodon	14¢	14%	0.8¢	—	28%	1,104	Oct 31, 14:00 UTC
Who will win the next Moldovan presidential election? · Dorin Recean	12¢	12%	0.8¢	—	25%	1,046	Oct 31, 14:00 UTC
Who will win the next Moldovan presidential election? · Natalia Gavrilița	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	887	Oct 31, 14:00 UTC
Who will win the next Moldovan presidential election? · Ion Ceban	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	666	Oct 31, 14:00 UTC
Who will win the next Moldovan presidential election? · Renato Usatîi	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	0	Oct 31, 14:00 UTC
Who will win the next Moldovan presidential election? · Vasile Costiuc	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	0	Oct 31, 14:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.