Markets › Kalshi › Entertainment
WHICH MOVIES WILL BE DELAYED? on Kalshi
If Avengers: Secret Wars will not be, or has not been, in wide release in the United States by December 17, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Variety, Reuters, the Associated Press, The New York Times, The Hollywood Reporter.
Market says (typical open contract)
37%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
74% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 37¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.21 | 38.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SHREK 5 be delayed? · Before Jul 1, 2027 | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 1,973 | Jul 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Avengers: Secret Wars be delayed? · Past Dec 18, 2027 | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 386 | Dec 18, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Black Panther 3 be delayed? · Past Dec 15, 2028 | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 146 | Dec 15, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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