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U.S. clade I mpox cases on Kalshi
If the total number of mpox clade Ib cases reported in the United States during 2026 is above 40, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: national health agencies, CDC, national health statistics reporting bodies, World Health Organization.
Market says (typical open contract)
37%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
74% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 37¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.21 | 38.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 20 mpox clade Ib cases in the United States during 2026 · Above 20 | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 2,465 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Above 10 mpox clade Ib cases in the United States during 2026 · Above 10 | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 1,851 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Above 25 mpox clade Ib cases in the United States during 2026 · Above 25 | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 1,733 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Above 40 mpox clade Ib cases in the United States during 2026 · Above 40 | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 1,437 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Above 15 mpox clade Ib cases in the United States during 2026 · Above 15 | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 1,321 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Above 30 mpox clade Ib cases in the United States during 2026 · Above 30 | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 1,011 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Above 35 mpox clade Ib cases in the United States during 2026 · Above 35 | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 774 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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