What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 55¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.56.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 57% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 55%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Mississippi Governor 2027: who will run? on Kalshi

If Tommy Duff has announced that they will run for Governor of Mississippi in 2027 after Issuance and before Feb 2, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the New York Times, ABC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, Bloomberg News, The Information, CBS, NBC, The Washington Post, Axios, Fox News, CNN, Politico, MSNBC, the Associated Press, Reuters.

Market says (typical open contract)

55%

Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

89% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
55¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.57	56.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Brandon Presley announce a run for Governor of Mississippi in 2027? · Brandon Presley	67¢	67%	1.5¢	—	66%	684	Feb 02, 15:00 UTC
Will Delbert Hosemann announce a run for Governor of Mississippi in 2027? · Delbert Hosemann	55¢	55%	1.7¢	—	89%	256	Feb 02, 15:00 UTC
Will Jim Hood announce a run for Governor of Mississippi in 2027? · Jim Hood	38¢	38%	1.7¢	—	77%	64	Feb 02, 15:00 UTC
Will Tommy Duff announce a run for Governor of Mississippi in 2027? · Tommy Duff	67¢	67%	1.5¢	—	66%	63	Feb 02, 15:00 UTC
Will Gregg Harper announce a run for Governor of Mississippi in 2027? · Gregg Harper	40¢	40%	1.7¢	—	79%	26	Feb 02, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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