What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 10¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.15.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 11% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 10%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

MTG party switch on Kalshi

If Haley Stevens leaves, announces that they are leaving, or is expelled from the Democratic party before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, Office of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, Bloomberg News, The Information, CBS, NBC, the Secretary of the Senate, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Politico.

Market says (typical open contract)

10%

Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

20% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
10¢ (now)	0.6¢	$3.15	10.6%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party? · John Fetterman	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	72,165	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Lisa Murkowski leave the Republican party? · Lisa Murkowski	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	22%	67,638	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Thomas Massie leave the Republican party? · Thomas Massie	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	14,708	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Haley Stevens leave the Democratic party? · Haley Stevens	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	40%	12,806	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Don Bacon leave the Republican party? · Don Bacon	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	10,798	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Henry Cuellar leave the Democratic party? · Henry Cuellar	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	9,898	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.