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Will Montana's SB 542 be struck down? on Kalshi
If any Montana state district court or the Montana Supreme Court holds or declares Senate Bill 542 (2025) unconstitutional and void — in its entirety or at least as to its graduated class four property tax rates — in Hertz v. State of Montana, any appeal of that action, or any other Montana action challenging Senate Bill 542's constitutionality before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
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The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 34¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.31 | 35.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a court invalidate Montana's new property tax rates before Mar 1, 2027? · Yes | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 15 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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