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music report on Kalshi
If SWIM is ranked #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10 Radio Songs of 2026 in U.S. (Based on Audience Impressions), as Published by Billboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Billboard.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 164 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Thriller be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Albums of 2026 in U.S. (Physical & Digital Sales Combined), as Published by Billboard? · Thriller | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 20,823 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Octane be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Albums of 2026 in U.S. (Physical & Digital Sales Combined), as Published by Billboard? · Octane | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 20,095 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will One Thing at a Time be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Albums of 2026 in U.S. (Physical & Digital Sales Combined), as Published by Billboard? · One Thing at a Time | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 19,729 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will ICEMAN be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Albums of 2026 in U.S. (Physical & Digital Sales Combined), as Published by Billboard? · ICEMAN | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 19,717 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will GNX be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Albums of 2026 in U.S. (Physical & Digital Sales Combined), as Published by Billboard? · GNX | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 19,717 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Albums of 2026 in U.S. (Physical & Digital Sales Combined), as Published by Billboard? · DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 19,717 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Dandelion be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Albums of 2026 in U.S. (Physical & Digital Sales Combined), as Published by Billboard? · Dandelion | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 19,715 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will KPop Demon Hunters be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Albums of 2026 in U.S. (Physical & Digital Sales Combined), as Published by Billboard? · KPop Demon Hunters | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 19,693 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Thriller be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Vinyl Albums of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard? · Thriller | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 19,494 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will SOS be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Albums of 2026 in U.S. (Physical & Digital Sales Combined), as Published by Billboard? · SOS | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 19,094 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will The Art Of Loving be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Albums of 2026 in U.S. (Physical & Digital Sales Combined), as Published by Billboard? · The Art Of Loving | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 18,710 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will ARIRANG be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Vinyl Albums of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard? · ARIRANG | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 15,138 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Vinyl Albums of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard? · DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 11,819 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will The Fall Off be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Albums of 2026 in U.S. (Physical & Digital Sales Combined), as Published by Billboard? · The Fall Off | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 11,327 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Short n’ Sweet be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Albums of 2026 in U.S. (Physical & Digital Sales Combined), as Published by Billboard? · Short n’ Sweet | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 11,127 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will A Bar Song (Tipsy) be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10 Most-Streamed Songs of 2026 in U.S. (On-Demand Audio), as Published by Billboard? · A Bar Song (Tipsy) | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 9,818 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Babydoll be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10 Most-Streamed Songs of 2026 in U.S. (On-Demand Audio), as Published by Billboard? · Babydoll | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 9,327 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will The Life of a Showgirl be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling CD Albums of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard? · The Life of a Showgirl | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 9,154 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will GNX be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Vinyl Albums of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard? · GNX | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 8,056 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will SOS be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Vinyl Albums of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard? · SOS | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 7,690 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Octane be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Vinyl Albums of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard? · Octane | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 7,647 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Choosin’ Texas be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10 Most-Streamed Songs of 2026 in U.S. (On-Demand Audio), as Published by Billboard? · Choosin’ Texas | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 7,523 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will A Bar Song (Tipsy) be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Digital Songs of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard? · A Bar Song (Tipsy) | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 7,315 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Vinyl Albums of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard? · Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 7,222 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will HIT ME HARD AND SOFT be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Vinyl Albums of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard? · HIT ME HARD AND SOFT | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 7,084 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will I’m the Problem be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Digital Songs of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard? · I’m the Problem | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 7,010 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Lover (Live From Paris) be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Vinyl Albums of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard? · Lover (Live From Paris) | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,627 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Billie Jean be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10 Most-Streamed Songs of 2026 in U.S. (On-Demand Audio), as Published by Billboard? · Billie Jean | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,485 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Dandelion be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Vinyl Albums of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard? · Dandelion | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,439 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Midnights be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Vinyl Albums of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard? · Midnights | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,427 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Lover be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Vinyl Albums of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard? · Lover | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,427 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will IGOR be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Vinyl Albums of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard? · IGOR | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,427 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Folklore be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Vinyl Albums of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard? · Folklore | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,427 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will 1989 (Taylor’s Version) be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Vinyl Albums of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard? · 1989 (Taylor’s Version) | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,427 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will One Thing at a Time be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Vinyl Albums of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard? · One Thing at a Time | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,352 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Vinyl Albums of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard? · you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 6,244 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Beauty and a Beat be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10 Most-Streamed Songs of 2026 in U.S. (On-Demand Audio), as Published by Billboard? · Beauty and a Beat | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,111 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Stateside + Zara Larsson be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10 Most-Streamed Songs of 2026 in U.S. (On-Demand Audio), as Published by Billboard? · Stateside + Zara Larsson | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,109 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will A Bar Song (Tipsy) be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10 Radio Songs of 2026 in U.S. (Based on Audience Impressions), as Published by Billboard? · A Bar Song (Tipsy) | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 6,106 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will ICEMAN be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Vinyl Albums of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard? · ICEMAN | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,057 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 164 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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