What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 8¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.22.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 9% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 8%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Financials

Elon Musk net worth on [date] on Kalshi

If Forbes reports that Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET is above $500 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation, Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 21 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

16% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
8¢ (now)	0.5¢	$3.22	8.5%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Elon Musk's net worth for December 31, 2026 be above $800 billion? · Above $800 billion	64¢	64%	1.6¢	—	73%	16,865	Dec 31, 21:59 UTC
Will Elon Musk's net worth for December 31, 2026 be above $900 billion? · Above $900 billion	44¢	44%	1.7¢	—	89%	13,063	Dec 31, 21:59 UTC
Will Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2026 be above $2.0 trillion? · Above $2.0 trillion	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	8,667	Dec 31, 21:59 UTC
Will Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2026 be above $1.8 trillion? · Above $1.8 trillion	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	8,240	Dec 31, 21:59 UTC
Will Elon Musk's net worth for December 31, 2026 be above $700 billion? · Above $700 billion	86¢	86%	0.9¢	—	29%	8,194	Dec 31, 21:59 UTC
Will Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2026 be above $2.4 trillion? · Above $2.4 trillion	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	19%	7,429	Dec 31, 21:59 UTC
Will Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2026 be above $1.1 trillion? · Above $1.1 trillion	24¢	24%	1.3¢	—	47%	6,853	Dec 31, 21:59 UTC
Will Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2026 be above $1.9 trillion? · Above $1.9 trillion	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	6,744	Dec 31, 21:59 UTC
Will Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2026 be above $1.0 trillion? · Above $1.0 trillion	16¢	16%	0.9¢	—	32%	5,539	Dec 31, 21:59 UTC
Will Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2026 be above $1.6 trillion? · Above $1.6 trillion	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	5,036	Dec 31, 21:59 UTC
Will Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2026 be above $1.2 trillion? · Above $1.2 trillion	14¢	14%	0.8¢	—	28%	4,860	Dec 31, 21:59 UTC
Will Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2026 be above $1.7 trillion? · Above $1.7 trillion	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	4,572	Dec 31, 21:59 UTC
Will Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2026 be above $2.3 trillion? · Above $2.3 trillion	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	3,713	Dec 31, 21:59 UTC
Will Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2026 be above $2.2 trillion? · Above $2.2 trillion	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	2,544	Dec 31, 21:59 UTC
Will Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2026 be above $2.5 trillion? · Above $2.5 trillion	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	2,211	Dec 31, 21:59 UTC
Will Elon Musk's net worth for December 31, 2026 be above $600 billion? · Above $600 billion	87¢	87%	0.8¢	—	26%	1,634	Dec 31, 21:59 UTC
Will Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2026 be above $1.3 trillion? · Above $1.3 trillion	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	17%	1,477	Dec 31, 21:59 UTC
Will Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2026 be above $1.5 trillion? · Above $1.5 trillion	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	15%	1,204	Dec 31, 21:59 UTC
Will Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2026 be above $1.4 trillion? · Above $1.4 trillion	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	1,132	Dec 31, 21:59 UTC
Will Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2026 be above $2.1 trillion? · Above $2.1 trillion	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	576	Dec 31, 21:59 UTC
Will Elon Musk's net worth for December 31, 2026 be above $500 billion? · Above $500 billion	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	13%	127	Dec 31, 21:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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