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What will Satya Nadella say? on Kalshi
If Satya Nadella says Token as part of 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Politico.
Market says (typical open contract)
38%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
75% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 38¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.17 | 39.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What will Satya Nadella say during 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026? · Agent / Agentic | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 908 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Satya Nadella say during 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026? · Azure | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 124 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Satya Nadella say during 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026? · Token | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 114 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Satya Nadella say during 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026? · Data Center | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 106 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Satya Nadella say during 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026? · OpenAI | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 57 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Satya Nadella say during 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026? · Nuclear | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 16 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Satya Nadella say during 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026? · GitHub | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 13 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Satya Nadella say during 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026? · Event does not qualify | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 9 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Satya Nadella say during 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026? · Cloud | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 9 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Satya Nadella say during 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026? · ROI / Return On Investment | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 9 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Satya Nadella say during 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026? · Copilot | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 8 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Satya Nadella say during 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026? · Security | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 2 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Satya Nadella say during 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026? · Compute | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 1 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Satya Nadella say during 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026? · Google / Gemini | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 0 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Satya Nadella say during 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026? · Cowork | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Satya Nadella say during 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026? · Containment | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 0 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Satya Nadella say during 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026? · Anthropic / Claude | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 0 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Satya Nadella say during 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026? · AGI | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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