Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Nairobi Governor winner on Kalshi
If Tony Gachoka wins the 2027 Nairobi gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission.
Market says (typical open contract)
12%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
23% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11¢ (now) | 0.7¢ | $3.12 | 11.7% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Babu Owino win the 2027 Nairobi gubernatorial election? · Babu Owino | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 50 | Aug 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tony Gachoka win the 2027 Nairobi gubernatorial election? · Tony Gachoka | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Aug 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ronald Karauri win the 2027 Nairobi gubernatorial election? · Ronald Karauri | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Aug 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Margaret Wanjiru win the 2027 Nairobi gubernatorial election? · Margaret Wanjiru | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Aug 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Johnson Sakaja win the 2027 Nairobi gubernatorial election? · Johnson Sakaja | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 0 | Aug 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will James Gakuya win the 2027 Nairobi gubernatorial election? · James Gakuya | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | Aug 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will George Aladwa win the 2027 Nairobi gubernatorial election? · George Aladwa | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Aug 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Agnes Kagure win the 2027 Nairobi gubernatorial election? · Agnes Kagure | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 0 | Aug 10, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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