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NASDAQ100 Min on Kalshi
If the Nasdaq 100 index value after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is below 22000.01, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: For example, Google Finance.
Market says (typical open contract)
15%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
29% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15¢ (now) | 0.9¢ | $2.98 | 15.9% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 22800.01 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 22,800 or below | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 29,375 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 22000.01 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 22,000 or below | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 15,087 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 22600.01 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 22,600 or below | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 10,876 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 22200.01 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 22,200 or below | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 7,156 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 22400.01 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 22,400 or below | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 5,639 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.