Markets › Kalshi › Financials
Nasdaq above/below on Kalshi
If the end-of-day Nasdaq 100 index value on November 10, 2026 is above 28889.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: For example, Google Finance.
Market says (typical open contract)
90%
Median YES price across 2800 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
20% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ (now) | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 28159.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 28,160 or above | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 7,000 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 28349.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 28,350 or above | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 2,006 | Nov 10, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 25229.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 25,230 or above | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,870 | Nov 10, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27899.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 27,900 or above | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 1,827 | Nov 10, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27669.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 27,670 or above | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 992 | Nov 10, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27639.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 27,640 or above | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 535 | Nov 10, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 28139.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 28,140 or above | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 500 | Nov 10, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27909.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 27,910 or above | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 471 | Nov 10, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27559.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 27,560 or above | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 395 | Nov 10, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 28379.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 28,380 or above | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 341 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27969.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 27,970 or above | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 310 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27949.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 27,950 or above | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 258 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 28499.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 28,500 or above | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 238 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27899.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 27,900 or above | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 177 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27869.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 27,870 or above | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 109 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27929.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 27,930 or above | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 108 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27929.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 27,930 or above | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 100 | Nov 10, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27919.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 27,920 or above | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 79 | Nov 10, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27959.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 27,960 or above | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 76 | Nov 10, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27909.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 27,910 or above | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 66 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 28019.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 28,020 or above | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 66 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27799.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 27,800 or above | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 51 | Nov 10, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27999.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 28,000 or above | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 45 | Nov 10, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27939.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 27,940 or above | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 37 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27829.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 27,830 or above | 61¢ | 61% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 35 | Nov 10, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27799.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 27,800 or above | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 30 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27699.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 27,700 or above | 73¢ | 73% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 30 | Nov 10, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 28099.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 28,100 or above | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 30 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27539.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 27,540 or above | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 27 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27859.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 27,860 or above | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 21 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27829.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 27,830 or above | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 15 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27749.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 27,750 or above | 74¢ | 74% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 15 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27719.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 27,720 or above | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 15 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27669.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 27,670 or above | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 15 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27639.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 27,640 or above | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 15 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27629.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 27,630 or above | 85¢ | 85% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 15 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27619.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 27,620 or above | 86¢ | 86% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 15 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27599.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 27,600 or above | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 15 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27549.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 27,550 or above | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 15 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27519.99 at the end of Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 27,520 or above | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 15 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 2800 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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