Markets › Kalshi › Commodities
Natural Gas Weekly on Kalshi
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST is above 4.899 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Pyth - NATGAS.
Market says (typical open contract)
98%
Median YES price across 40 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
4% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
| 98¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $0.07 | 98.1% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.499 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.499 | 61¢ | 61% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 15,829 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.599 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.599 | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 8,694 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.299 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.299 | 86¢ | 86% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 6,597 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.399 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.399 | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 4,845 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 4.499 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4.499 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 2,062 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.199 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.199 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 1,079 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.899 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.899 | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 521 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 2.999 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $2.999 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 390 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.099 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.099 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 328 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.999 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.999 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 281 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.799 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.799 | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 235 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.699 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.699 | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 140 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 2.899 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $2.899 | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 46 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 4.599 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4.599 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 15 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 2.499 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $2.499 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 2.399 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $2.399 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 2.799 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $2.799 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 3 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 4.899 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4.899 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 4.799 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4.799 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 4.699 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4.699 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 4.399 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4.399 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 4.299 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4.299 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 4.199 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4.199 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 4.099 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4.099 | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 2.699 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $2.699 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 2.599 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $2.599 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 2.299 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $2.299 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 2.199 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $2.199 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 2.099 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $2.099 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 1.999 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $1.999 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 1.899 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $1.899 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 1.799 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $1.799 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 1.699 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $1.699 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 1.599 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $1.599 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 1.499 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $1.499 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 1.399 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $1.399 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 1.299 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $1.299 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 1.199 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $1.199 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 1.099 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $1.099 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 0.999 USD/MMBtu on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $0.999 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.